Uncertainty has become the default vocabulary of business. On recent earnings calls, 76% of S&P 500 companies cited it, against 37% only three months earlier. The piece attributes those figures to HBR and FactSet.
The author’s argument is that neither optimism nor pessimism moves anyone. He describes the deadlock in personal terms: pessimism is not listened to, optimism is not believed. Hope is offered as the position that does move people, because it holds both halves at once.
Key findings
- Hope here is a cognitive stance, not a mood. The piece points to work in psychology and behavioral science treating it as a framework for navigating uncertainty and acting under it.
- The claimed individual payoff is threefold. Citing Emily Esfahani Smith, the piece says hopeful people cope better with stress, think more creatively in hard situations, and show greater resilience.
- Polarization is smaller than it is assumed to be. The piece reports that research across several countries consistently finds people are not nearly as divided on important issues as they believe.
- Two data points are given as concrete grounds for hope. Earth4All found 74% support across G20 countries for shifting to wellbeing-focused economic systems. The International Energy Agency reports green energy investment at twice that of fossil fuels.
The case against both defaults
The piece opens by conceding the pessimist’s ground. Political shifts, economic instability and social fragmentation are described as arriving together, which is what produces the sense of moving ground.
It then concedes the optimist’s ground just as readily. The author cites Steven Pinker and Hans Rosling for the view that this is one of the most prosperous periods in history. Neither concession changes anyone’s behavior, which is the point.
What makes hope operational
The theoretical basis is named rather than implied. The piece cites goal-setting theory from C. R. Snyder and the progress principle from Teresa Amabile. Both point the same way: hope works when it is made tangible.
The first two recommendations are about proof. Define a clear near-term outcome rather than a broad promise of a better tomorrow. Then show visible evidence that change is already under way, such as customer adoption or observed shifts in behavior.
The second two are about honesty and identity. Name the real constraints of cost, time, effort and trade-offs instead of presenting the solution as effortless. Then frame the action in terms of who the person is or wants to be, not only what they receive.
Scope and limitations
This is a short opinion piece, written in the first person, not a study. Its argument rests on the author’s own experience of being neither heard nor believed. The four recommendations are offered as recommendations, with no reported test of them.
Every figure in it is borrowed. The statistics come from HBR and FactSet, Earth4All, and the International Energy Agency, dated between 2021 and 2025. The piece gives no sample sizes or methods for any of them.
Source
This page summarises The potential of hope, by Aljan de Boer, March 2026.